Alex Rodriguez
and his history of steroid and performance enhancing drug use. There is also an old saying that “those that don’t learn from history are destined to repeat it.”
What do these things have to do with each other? A lot, I think.
and his history of steroid and performance enhancing drug use. There is also an old saying that “those that don’t learn from history are destined to repeat it.”
What do these things have to do with each other? A lot, I think.
THE war against Islamist extremism and the terrorism it spawns is being fought on many fronts. But it may well be in Pakistan that it is won or lost. It is not only that the country's lawless frontier lands provide a refuge for al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, and that its jihad academies train suicide-bombers with global reach. Pakistan is also itself the world's second most populous Muslim nation, with a proud tradition of tolerance and moderation, now under threat from the extremists on its fringes. Until recently, the risk that Pakistan might be prey to Islamic fundamentalism of the sort its Taliban protégés enforced in Afghanistan until 2001 seemed laughable. It is still far-fetched. But after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, twice prime minister, nobody is laughing. This, after all, is a country that now has the bomb Miss Bhutto's father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, craved so passionately as prime minister in the 1970s.
There are many other reasons why the murder of Miss Bhutto (and some 20 other people unlucky enough to be near her) makes Pakistan seem a frightening place. That terrorists could strike in Rawalpindi, headquarters of the Pakistani army, despite having advertised threats against Miss Bhutto, and despite the slaughter of some 150 people in Karachi on the day she returned from exile last October, suggests no one is safe. If, as many in Pakistan believe, the security services were themselves complicit, that is perhaps even scarier. It would make it even harder to deal with the country's many other fissures: the sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia Muslims; the ethnic tensions between Punjabis, Sindhis, Pushtuns and “mohajir” immigrants from India; the insurgency in Baluchistan; and the spread of the “Pakistani Taliban” out of the border tribal areas into the heartlands.
Miss Bhutto's murder has left her Pakistan People's Party (PPP), the country's biggest, at risk of disintegration. It is now in the hands of her unpopular widower, Asif Ali Zardari, and her 19-year-old son, Bilawal, who by rights should be punting and partying with his classmates at Oxford, not risking his neck in politics. The election whose campaign killed Miss Bhutto was due on January 8th, but the Election Commission has delayed it by six weeks. The PPP will reap a big sympathy vote. But bereft of Miss Bhutto, the party—and the country—look desperately short of leaders of national stature. Other Bhutto clan-members are already sniping at her successors.
The other big mainstream party, led by her rival Nawaz Sharif, another two-time prime minister, is also in disarray. Both parties have been weakened by their leaders' exiles, as well as by persecution at the hands of President Pervez Musharraf's military dictatorship. In truth, both Miss Bhutto and Mr Sharif were lousy prime ministers. But at least they had some semblance of a popular mandate. The systematic debilitation of their parties benefits the army, which has entrenched itself in the economic as well as the political system. But it also helps the Islamist parties—backed, as they are, by an army which has sometimes found them more congenial partners than the more popular mainstream parties. The unpopularity of the Musharraf regime, hostility towards America, and resentment at a war in neighbouring Afghanistan that many in Pakistan see as directed at both Islam and their ethnic-Pushtun kin, have also helped the Islamists.
So, ironically, America's support for Mr Musharraf, justified as necessary to combat extremism next door, has fostered extremism at home. Similarly, in the 1980s America backed General Zia ul Haq, a dictator and Islamic fundamentalist, as his intelligence services sponsored the mujahideen who eventually toppled the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan. In the process, they helped create what Miss Bhutto called a “Frankenstein's monster”—of jihadist groups with sympathisers in the army and intelligence services. The clubbable, whisky-quaffing, poodle-cuddling Mr Musharraf is no fundamentalist. But the monster still stalks his security forces.
Yet Pakistan's plight is not yet hopeless. Two things could still help arrest its slide into anarchy, improbable though both now seem. The first is a credible investigation into Miss Bhutto's murder and the security-service lapses (or connivance) that allowed it to happen. Mr Musharraf's willingness to let a couple of British policemen help the inquiry is unlikely to produce this. Every time a bomb goes off in Pakistan, people believe that one of the country's own spooks lit the fuse. Until there has been a convincing purge of the military-intelligence apparatus, Pakistan will never know true stability.
Second, there could be a fair election. This would expose the weakness of the Islamist parties. In the last general election in 2002, they won just one-tenth of the votes, despite outrageous rigging that favoured them. Even if they fared somewhat better this time, they would still, in the most populous provinces, Sindh and Punjab, be trounced by the mainstream parties. An elected government with popular support would be better placed to work with the moderate, secular, professional tendency in the army to tackle extremism and bring Pakistan's poor the economic development they need.
Sadly, there seems little hope that the security forces will abandon the habit of a lifetime and allow truly fair elections. The delay in the voting—opposed by both main opposition parties—has been seen as part of its plan to rig the results. The violence that has scarred the country since Miss Bhutto's assassination may intensify. The army may be tempted to impose another state of emergency; or it may cling on to ensure that the election produces the result it wants—a weak and pliable coalition of the PPP and Mr Musharraf's loyalists.
For too long, Mr Musharraf has been allowed to pay lip-service to democratic forms, while the United States has winked at his blatant disdain for the substance. The justification has been the pre-eminent importance of “stability” in the world's most dangerous place. It is time to impress upon him and the generals still propping him up that democracy is not the alternative to stability. It is Pakistan's only hope.
Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will receive a $7.5 billion cash infusion from Abu Dhabi to replenish capital after record mortgage losses wiped out almost half its market value.
Citigroup rose 2.6 percent in New York trading today following acting Chief Executive Officer Win Bischoff's statement late yesterday that funds from the state-owned Abu Dhabi Investment Authority will help ``strengthen our capital base.''
Abu Dhabi will buy securities that convert to stock and yield 11 percent a year, almost double the interest Citigroup offers bond investors, underscoring the New York-based company's need for cash. Fourth-quarter profit will be reduced by as much as $7 billion because of losses from subprime mortgages, which led to the departure of CEO Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince III and a 46 percent slump in its stock this year.
``Clearly, Citi has a problem with capital adequacy after the subprime crisis,'' said Giyas Gokkent, head of research at National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC, Abu Dhabi's biggest bank by market value. ``ADIA has seen an opportunity to get cheaply into a blue-chip stock.''
With the purchase of a 4.9 percent stake, Abu Dhabi, the largest emirate in the United Arab Emirates and its capital, would rank as Citigroup's largest shareholder ahead of Los Angeles-based Capital Group Cos. and Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Depleted Capital
The investment follows purchases by U.A.E. fund Dubai International Capital LLC in companies including London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank by market value, and New York-based hedge fund Och-Ziff Capital Management LLC. In Abu Dhabi, state-backed Mubadala Development Co. agreed to buy 7.5 percent of Washington-based buyout firm Carlyle Group. ADIA also owns a stake in Leon Black's New York-based buyout firm, Apollo Management LP.
Citigroup Chairman Robert Rubin, who stepped in after Prince resigned, and Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said on a conference call earlier this month that the bank expects to restore capital to targeted levels by the end of the second quarter without having to cut its $2.7 billion-a-quarter dividend.
Mortgage writedowns cut Citigroup's ``tier 1'' ratio, a metric used to assess banks' ability to weather loan losses, to 7.3 percent on Sept. 30. The figure, while above U.S. regulators' 6 percent threshold for a ``well-capitalized'' bank, was below the bank's 7.5 percent target.
`Bullish' View
The Citigroup equity units that ADIA will purchase can be swapped for as many as 235.6 million shares starting in 2010. The securities will convert into Citigroup shares at prices ranging from $31.83 to $37.24 between March 15, 2010, and Sept. 15, 2011.
Today Citigroup's stock rose 78 cents to $30.54 as of 10:03 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Yesterday, they closed at $29.76, the lowest price in five years.
``The structure of the deal suggests that Abu Dhabi is very bullish, effectively participating in the upside beyond $37.24, and sharing in the downside below $31.83,'' said George Nikas, who helps manage $1 billion at Deutsche Bank AG in Sydney.
Abu Dhabi will have ``no role in the management or governance of Citi, including no right to designate a member'' of the company's board, Citigroup said in its statement.
``This investment reflects our confidence in Citi's potential to build shareholder value,'' ADIA Managing Director Sheikh Ahmed bin Zayed al-Nahyan said in the Citigroup statement.
Cost of Capital
Mounting subprime losses have increased Citigroup's funding costs. The bank sold $4 billion of 10-year bonds on Nov. 14, paying annual interest of 6.125 percent. The securities were priced to yield 190 basis points more than Treasuries, up from 118 basis points, or 1.18 percentage points, in a similar sale three months earlier.
CIBC World Markets analyst Meredith Whitney said in a note to clients today that she still expects Citigroup to cut its dividend as mortgage losses increase.
Abu Dhabi officials met with Rubin in the emirate yesterday to discuss ``world stock markets and their impact on the performance of banks,'' the state-run WAM news agency reported on its Web site.
Abu Dhabi owns the world's fifth-biggest oil reserves. It channels oil surpluses to ADIA, which ranks as the world's biggest sovereign wealth fund with assets of $875 billion, according to July estimates by the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit. The authority will spend $40 billion this year to buy foreign assets, estimates Gokkent at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
Buying Assets
Gulf investors have spent about $70 billion on overseas acquisitions this year, almost double their spending in 2006, as oil prices soared 58 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. With oil above $90 a barrel, Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. earn more than $1.3 billion a day from their energy sales.
State-controlled Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the biggest chemicals company by market value, in May agreed to buy General Electric Co.'s plastic unit for $11.6 billion in a record acquisition for the Gulf. State-owned Dubai World in August agreed to invest as much as $5.1 billion in MGM Mirage, the second-largest casino company, to try to tap into the Las Vegas- based company's U.S. gaming and real estate earnings.
Gulf petrodollars don't always get the prize. Qatar on Nov. 5 said it abandoned a $21.9 billion bid for U.K. supermarket chain J Sainsbury Plc after its cost of funding jumped ``significantly'' since first making the bid July 18.
China's Purchases
China also has been increasing investments in the U.S. and Europe. Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm, agreed last month to sell a 6 percent stake to China's government-controlled Citic Securities Co. for about $1 billion. China Investment Corp., the nation's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, paid $3 billion for a stake in New York-based private equity firm Blackstone Group LP in May. Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-biggest lender, agreed to sell 6.7 percent of itself to China Development Bank in July.
The state-owned Dubai International Financial Center, which bought 2.2 percent of Deutsche Bank AG in May, on Nov. 19 said it is seeking acquisitions in the U.S., where the falling dollar and a lending crisis are driving down the price of banks and property.
Dubai Center
Citigroup is among tenants at the Dubai center, a business park being used to attract banks, insurers and asset managers to the Persian Gulf. Like neighbors Qatar and Bahrain, Dubai is bidding to plug the trading time gap between Europe and Asia and become the region's pre-eminent financial hub.
Qatar, like Abu Dhabi, is seeking to diversify its economy away from near-total reliance on energy earnings. Unlike Abu Dhabi, the oil wells of Dubai and Bahrain have almost run dry.
ADIA ``will bolster Citigroup's capital and competitiveness,'' U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer said in a statement. The New York Democrat was among the lawmakers who criticized the Bush administration's decision last year to approve DP World Ltd.'s $6.8 billion acquisition of London-based Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation Co., a deal that gave the Dubai state-owned port company control of six U.S. terminals.
Schumer was among those who said Dubai ownership would jeopardize U.S. national security, arguing that two terrorists involved in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks were from the U.A.E.
AIG's Purchase
DP World agreed in December to sell the U.S. terminals, in cities including New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and New Orleans, to American International Group Inc., the world's biggest insurer.
``The issue for DP World was a misunderstanding that it might misuse its control of some U.S. ports, but that is behind us and Dubai in particular has been doing a lot of deals in the U.S. since then,'' said Mohammed Ghubash, professor of political science at the U.A.E. University in al-Ain.
Prince Alwaleed, a nephew of Saudi King Abdullah, invested $590 million in Citigroup predecessor Citicorp in 1991 when the bank needed cash because of loan losses in Latin America and a collapse in U.S. property prices. Alwaleed now holds about $6 billion of Citigroup shares. The prince wasn't available for comment at his Riyadh office today.
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